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Professor Thailand Political Analysis pt.2
18 December 2008 Thailand got a new Democrat Party PM on 15 December, but will it make any difference?
If internal factors were not enough to stir up the chaotic image of political disarray and faction fighting here, the ´hamburger crisis´, as Thai analysts call the US led financial breakdown, add to the problems that has tormented Thailand this fall.
It is however Thailand's home made conflict that dominate daily lives in the Kingdom. And what a very Thai mess this has become. Traditional powers against new forces, the ousted PM on the run handing out directives from abroad, upcountry people against Bangkok ´elites´, a strict judiciary, street fights, the silent majority looking on - more and more frustrated as the extreme factions refuse to give in.
A short recap before we look at the uncertain future: PM Samak Sundaravej left his job in September, after the constitution court found his participation in a cookery show on TV unconstitutional. Samak was replaced by fellow PPP member Somchai Wongsawat following parliamentary confirmation of the latter. Somchai is married to former PM Thaksin Shinawatra´s younger sister Yaowapa. That relation overshadowed whatever qualities the new PM carried into government house. Somchai´s tenure lasted only months. The Constitution Court dissolved PPP on December 2, 2008, and among the red carded party executives were PM Somchai. Out he went, followed by the Chart Thai and Machimathipathai parties´ executives, these two parties were also dissolved.
Then, on the 4th December, did HMK Bhumibol abstain from his traditional speech to the nation due to a bout with bronchitis. No royal guidance during a stressful time for Thailand added to the sentiment.
Only the red-shirted anti-PAD group, comprised of Thaksin supporters and various anti military rule and pro democracy activists, put up open resistance during the PAD occupations. In addition a number of grenade attacks by unknown parties against PAD occurred, as well as shooting by PAD guards against real and perceived attackers.
Several lives were lost in Bangkok during the period from August to December and many more were injured. When police tried to fend off a PAD led occupation attempt of the parliament 7 October with tear gas fire one PAD supporter died of grenade wounds and several were gravely injured. Probably due to the lousy quality of the China made tear gas grenades used by the police. But parliament was saved. At a very high price.
When Somchai left along with a number of red carded MP´s, it came as no big surprise when most political parties in the coalition broke away to join the Democrat party faction instead. When 32 former PPP MPs jumped to the Democrat camp it was all over for the old coalition. Only the small Pracharaj party joined Pua Thai, the reserve party that took over all valid PPP MP´s. It all felt like old style Thai politics again.
The new cabinet led by PM Apisit Vejjajiva will be announced before Christmas and has an uncertain future. Not only because a weak platform in parliament, 235 vs 192 MP, with 30 more MP to add from by elections 11 January 2009. It is unlikely that a majority of the 30 will go to the new government camp.
More disturbing for Apisit is former PM Thaksin´s continued influence over a large proportion of Thais on the countryside. Thaksin who has a two year prison sentence for his involvement in a land affair against him will not give in. He said that as late as 13 December. The redshirts will not give in either.
This political mess continues at a very bad time. Thailand´s economy is severely hurt after the PAD airport occupations. And global demand for Thai products is slowing down because of the US led crisis. All parties stand to lose from a drawn out political struggle. Nevertheless it seems like no lasting political solution is in sight yet. It will take time, and Thai patience with the sometimes cumbersome deliberations a democratic system needs to grow up, to heal Thailand.
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Add to that a Government house occupied since late August by the anti-Thaksin PAD, People´s Alliance for Democracy. Late November PAD marched to and took over Bangkok´s two airports, Don Muang and Suvarnaphumi without visible resistance from police and military. PAD left after 2 December, claiming victory as the three parties were dissolved and the cabinet became virtually dysfunctional.